2026
In 2025, U.S. aid cuts drove the fastest contraction of foreign aid on record. These cuts threaten the cooperative arrangement underpinning the refugee regime, in which low- and middle-income countries host most refugees while high-income countries finance assistance. As host communities lose aid-related jobs, services, and infrastructure, does citizens’ willingness to host refugees decline? I examine this question in Kenya using two nationwide surveys, a high-frequency panel and vignette experiment near Kakuma camp, and 52 interviews with local leaders, all conducted as the cuts unfolded. Support for hosting declined in refugee-hosting areas as economic losses and insecurity grew, driven by households that lost camp-based benefits. By contrast, national support remained stable, and exploratory evidence suggests that humanitarian concern limited backlash. Yet because refugee policy often responds to pressures in hosting regions, continued cuts may weaken the local foundations of asylum in the countries that host most of the world’s refugees.