Mae MacDonald
2026
What happens to public support for international cooperation when the transfers that sustain it are withdrawn? I argue that cooperation with the refugee regime rests partly on a subnational bargain: host communities bear concentrated costs of asylum, which foreign aid can offset through jobs, services, and other benefits. These benefits sustain the local support for hosting that can underpin refugee cooperation, which aid withdrawal may erode. I test this argument using the 2025 aid cuts in Kenya. Drawing on two nationwide surveys, a high-frequency panel and vignette experiment near Kakuma refugee camp, and 52 interviews with refugee leaders, I show that support for refugee hosting declined in hosting regions relative to the rest of the country during the height of the cuts. Within the host community, declines were concentrated among households most exposed to the loss of aid-related jobs or services, while national support remained stable. The findings show that host-community support for refugees depends partly on foreign aid, raising concerns about the durability of international refugee cooperation as donor support recedes.